The dataset contains processed model output of future simulations of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet using the Ua ice dynamics model (https://github.com/GHilmarG/UaSource). Simulations were run for 200 years comparing the impact of both an intermediate (RCP4.5 emissions scenario) and extreme (RCP8.5 emissions scenario) as well as maintaining the current oceanic regime or switching to one dominated by circumpolar deep water intrusions. A reference run with constant present-day forcing is also included to assess the relative impacts of the various forcing scenarios.
This work was primarily funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, grant number NE/R000719/1. James Jordan, Hilmar Gudmundsson and Adrian Jenkins received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 869304, PROTECT. Bertie Miles was also supported by a Leverhulme Early Career Fellowship (ECF-2021-484).
East Antarctica, circumpolar deep water, ice sheet, mass balance, numerical simulations
Jordan, J., Stokes, C., Miles, B., Jamieson, S., Gudmundsson, G., & Jenkins, A. (2023). Simulated changes in East Antarctic mass balance and grounded area in response to a shift to circumpolar deep water forced melting from the present-day oceanic regime (Version 1.0) [Data set]. NERC EDS UK Polar Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/beda45d1-dd33-4666-8861-b4b91af0180f
|Access Constraints:||No restrictions apply.|
|Use Constraints:||Data supplied under Open Government Licence v3.0 http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/.|
|ISO Topic Categories:||
|Name||UK Polar Data Centre|
|Organisation||British Antarctic Survey|
|Name||James R Jordan|
|Role(s)||Investigator, Technical Contact|
|Name||Chris R Stokes|
|Name||Bertie W J Miles|
|Name||Stewart S R Jamieson|
|Name||G. Hilmar Gudmundsson|
|Reference:||Jordan, J.R., Miles, B.W.J., Gudmundsson, G.H. et al. Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years. Nat Commun 14, 1825 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2.
Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Binder, T. et al. Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet. Nature Geoscience 13, 132-137 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8.
Reese, R., Albrecht, T., Mengel, M., Asay-Davis, X., and Winkelmann, R.: Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO, The Cryosphere, 12, 1969-1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018.
J.M. Van Wessem, C.H. Reijmer, M. Morlighem, J. Mouginot, E. Rignot, B. Medley, I. Joughin, B. Wouters, M.A. Depoorter and J.L. Bamber, Improved representation of East Antarctic surface mass balance in a regional atmospheric climate model. Journal of Glaciology, 60(222):761-770, 2014. https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG14J051.
Zwally, H. Jay, Mario B. Giovinetto, Matthew A. Beckley, and Jack L. Saba, 2012, Antarctic and Greenland Drainage Systems, 2012, GSFC Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory, at https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/polar-altimetry/antarctic-and-greenland-drainage-systems.
|Quality:||To account for model bias a baseline run with constant forcing was performed. To account for errors in the ocean and atmospheric forcing applied two further runs were performed for each emission scenario, a "positive bias" mass balance (high precipitation, low ocean melting) and "negative bias" mass balance (low precipitation, high ocean melting) to capture the envelope of expected results.|
|Lineage:||Data was obtained from numerical simulations using the Ua ice dynamics model (https://github.com/GHilmarG/UaSource, version Ua2019b). Bedrock bathymetry and initial ice thickness was provided by the BedMachine dataset (Morlighem et al 2020), Ice shelf melt rates were determined by using a modified version of the PICO (Potsdam Ice-shelf Cavity mOdel (Reese et al., 2018). Precipitation was determined by scaling the RACMO v 2.3 (Regional Antarctic Climate Model) dataset (Van Wessem et al., 2014). Results provided are time series of total ice volume, ice volume above floatation and grounded ice area for the entire model domain as well as drainage basins corresponding to the IMBIE 2016 definition of East Antarctica (Zwally2012).|
|Detailed Location||East Antarctica|
|Data Collection:||Simulations were performed using the Ua ice dynamics model (https://github.com/GHilmarG/UaSource, version Ua2019b). Post processing of data was performed using MATLAB version R2021a.|
|Distribution Media||Online Internet (HTTP)|
|Distribution Size||871.5 kB|
|Data Storage:||The dataset comprises 9 data files. Data is presented as netCDF files, containing 200 year long time series of total ice volume, volume of ice above floatation and grounded ice area for the total domain as well as 8 separate catchments.
WholeDomainResults.nc (Results for the entire model domain comprising the following 8 catchments)
Region1Results.nc (Results for the D-D' IMBIE catchment)
Region2Results.nc (Results for the C'-D IMBIE catchment)
Region3Results.nc (Results for the C-C' IMBIE catchment)
Region4Results.nc (Results for the A-A' IMBIE catchment)
Region5Results.nc (Results for the D'-E IMBIE catchment)
Region6Results.nc (Results for the A'-B IMBIE catchment)
Region7Results.nc (Results for the B-C IMBIE catchment)
Region8Results.nc (Results for the K-A IMBIE catchment)
Within the individual netCDF files the results for various model scenarios follow a common naming pattern. 'Base', 'SW' and 'CDW' refer to either the baseline, constant forcing simulation or simulations with predominantly shelf water or circumpolar deep water oceanic forcing. 'RCP4' and 'RCP8' refer to scenarios forced with atmospheric and oceanic warming in line with either a RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 emissions scenarios derived from CMIP5 output. 'VAF', 'IV' and 'GA' refer volume of ice above floatation (in Gt of ice), total ice volume (in Gt of ice) or grounded ice area (in km2). 'UpperLimit' and 'LowerLimit' are further sensitivity studies, with the Upper Limit referring to a simulation with the upper band in precipitation change with the lower band in oceanic warming (expected to have the most positive mass balance) whilst Lower Limit refers to a simulation with the lower band in precipitation change with the upper band in oceanic warming (expected to have the most negative mass balance). Results are presented at yearly intervals for 200 years, with time 0 showing the initial conditions.