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Forecasts, neural networks, and results from the paper: 'Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning'
GB/NERC/BAS/PDC/01526

Summary

Abstract:
This dataset encompasses data produced in the study 'Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning', published in Nature Communications. The study introduces a new Arctic sea ice forecasting AI system, IceNet, which predicts monthly-averaged sea ice probability (SIP; probability of sea ice concentration > 15%) up to 6 months ahead at 25 km resolution. The study demonstrated IceNet's superior seasonal forecasting skill over a state-of-the-art physics-based sea ice forecasting system, ECMWF SEAS5, and a statistical benchmark. This dataset includes three types of data from the study. Firstly, IceNet's SIP forecasts from 2012/1 - 2020/9. Secondly, the 25 neural network files underlying the IceNet model. Thirdly, CSV files of results from the study. The codebase associated with this work includes a script to download this dataset and reproduce all the paper's figures.

This dataset is supported by Wave 1 of The UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund under the EPSRC Grant EP/T001569/1, particularly the "AI for Science" theme within that grant and The Alan Turing Institute. The dataset is also supported by the NERC ACSIS project (grant NE/N018028/1).

Keywords:
Arctic, deep learning, forecasting, machine learning, sea ice

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